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Replication: Belief elicitation with quadratic and binarized scoring rules

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Abstract

Researchers increasingly elicit beliefs to understand the underlying motivations of decision makers. Two commonly used methods are the quadratic scoring rule (QSR) and the binarized scoring rule (BSR). Hossain and Okui (2013) use a within-subject design to evaluate the performance of these two methods in an environment where subjects report probabilistic beliefs over binary outcomes with objective probabilities. In a near replication of their study, we show that their results continue to hold with a between-subject design. This is an important validation of the BSR given that researchers typically implement only one method to elicit beliefs. In favor of the BSR, reported beliefs are less accurate under the QSR than the BSR. Consistent with theoretical predictions, risk-averse subjects distort their reported beliefs under the QSR.

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Original languageEnglish
Article number102315
JournalJournal of Economic Psychology
Volume81
Early online date10 Sep 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2020
Peer-reviewedYes

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