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Post-merger Price Dynamics Matters, So Why Do Merger Retrospectives Ignore It?

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Abstract

The overwhelming majority of retrospective merger studies pool the post-merger data to estimate the average price effect of the merger. Pooled post-merger estimates ignore key information about price dynamics and are unable to identify if post-merger prices revert to pre-merger levels within the same time period. We provide evidence—from a meta-analysis of over 600 previous market-level price effect estimates, and a set of Monte Carlo experiments—that using pooled models often leads to erroneous conclusions: for example by wrongly concluding that the merger increased prices, even when this price increase was only temporary.

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)403-429
JournalReview of Industrial Organization
Volume55
Issue number3
Early online date29 Jul 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2019
Peer-reviewedYes

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